Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 May 04 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 125 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAY 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8970 (S14W105), FROM BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M6 X-RAY EVENT AT 04/1108Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. EARLIER, AT 03/2310Z, REGION 8970 PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM. SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8980 (S15W08), WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SEEN IN REGION 8981 (S22W10). NEW REGION 8983 (N25E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY CLASS M 20/20/20 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 04 MAY 135 PREDICTED 05 MAY-07 MAY 130/130/135 90 DAY MEAN 04 MAY 189 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY 013/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY 010/010-015/015-012/012 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/30/30 MINOR STORM 05/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/40 MINOR STORM 10/10/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01